Do all great athletes come from athletic parents? Are all Kentucky Derby winners determined based on whether or not the horse's sire and dam could get the mile and quarter distance? Absolutely not. When looking at a maiden race for first time starters and other maidens it is important to take pedigree into account to decide who you think is going to win, however when a horse has raced 6 times already you can't doubt the horse based on his pedigree. Musket Man, out of the champion sprinter Yonaguska was never supposed to get a mile and a sixteenth or eighth, but he has 2 graded stakes wins at each of the distances and is still being doubted by some based upon his pedigree and lack of stayers. Steve Haskin, one of the main writers for the bloodhorse.com has listed Musket Man as his 10 selection, behind horses such as General Quarters, who Musket Man has defeated twice, in the Pasco Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby, both at Tampa Bay Downs. Mr. Haskin's reasoning for placing Musket so low on his list despite 5 wins from 6 starts has nothing to do with past performances, but all to do with pedigree.
"The only reason he's behind General Quarters, despite having beaten him two out of three times at Tampa, is the difference in pedigree. While it looks like he'll continue to outrun his pedigree, his rival is almost a sure thing to stay. But it's hard to like one without the other. This is a potent Tampa one-two punch."
Exactly Steve, he will continue to out run his pedigree so it shouldn't even be a concern heading into Derby Day. Musket Man has never been in a situation where he was on the lead and was going to get caught, in fact it looks like Musket Man doesn't do his best running until he sees the eighth pole. How can you explain, Mr. Haskin, that you had Old Fashioned on top of your list for several weeks, despite his inability to control his speed enough to get the distance in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby. Old Fashioned has the pedigree to run long, but the horse's own character and preferences wouldn't allow him to get stay on until the wire. So if a horse, like Old Fashioned, who supposedly has the pedigree to get the distance, can't get the distance why can't a horse like Musket Man be able to get the mile and a quarter? Please explain that to me Steve, well not just to me, but to everyone of your readers.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Musket Man's Next Work EIBAR COA aboard
MUSKET MAN is scheduled to work next weekend most likely saturday with Eibar Coa aboard in company with BULL TOCCET a highly regarded 3 year old who has been working in company with him since Tampa. The trainer just wants to put in a maintence work not to fast and then speed him up closer to the derby.
Random Thoughts about the Derby
Because this is a "blog," this site should have more information and stories other than just news. Here are a few things to chew on about the Kentucky Derby
1. Did I Want Revenge come to New York to face lesser horses? I don't believe that he did because before the Gotham, Imperial Council and Mr. Fantasy were being highlighted as possible Derby contenders only to have I Want Revenge romp by 8 1/2 lengths. Despite the fact that he did face "lesser" horses in the Wood, Revenge still went up against West Side Bernie and Gotham runner-up Imperial Council and won despite breaking in the air and being left at the pack. He is a legit contender who can be placed anywhere in the race. Only two questions remain for him. One, Will he have anything left for Louisville after 2 cross-country flights for races where he ran his heart out? Two, Can he beat Pioneerofthe Nile on dirt after failing to beat him on synthectics in California?
2. How Legit is Dunkirk? Very Legit. After romping in his maiden race, Todd Pletcher got Garrett Gomez to fly in from California mid week to ride him in an allowance race where he was wide the entire time and still dominated. As much as I would love to throw out the Florida Derby because of the track I can't because Quality Road might be the controlling speed in the Kentucky Derby just as he would like it. I think that the paceless Kentucky Derby won't go over well for Dunkirk, but I still expect a top-5 finish from him.
3. Which Prep Race turned out to be the strongest in form? I think that the change of distance for the Fountain of Youth really hurt the Gulfstream Preps even more than the hard-as-nails packed track they had for the Florida Derby. Of all the horses to race in the Holy Bull, FOY and Florida Derby, only Quality Road and Dunkirk are serious contenders. Pioneerofthe Nile looks to have the best form having beaten I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, The Pamplemousse among others. However, I Want Revenge didn't get serious until he was put on dirt, Chocolate Candy looks like he needs a pace to close from and The Pamplemousse is injured and won't run. The synthetic track has played a role in POTN's success and I can see him spinning his wheels in Louisville. Outside of California, I will put no stock into the winners of any of the syntehtic prep races (Lexington, Lane's End and Blue Grass) but it is hard to overlook General Quarters who ran 2nd to Musket Man in Tampa Bay's Pasco Stakes, beat Musket Man in the Sam F. Davis and fell behind in traffic in the Tampa Bay Derby. With Win Willy proving to be a fluke and Old Fashioned injured, I do not like the winners of any Arkansas prep races to be major factors. Papa Clem, winner of the Arkansas Derby ran 2nd to Larry Jones' Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby over a sloppy track. Friesan looks to be a serious contender, and you always have to respect a Larry Jones horse. Finally, I must say the strongest prep-race had to be the Tampa Bay Derby. I am not being biased towards Musket Man, but he defeated now-multiple graded stakes winner General Quarters, Todd Plectcher's Join In The Dance who ran 5th in the Blue Grass and next out allowance winner Hello Broadway from the Barclay Tagg Barn. Musket Man's ability to manuever through traffic and go to another gear of speed is necessary to win the Kentucky Derby (see Big Brown, Street Sense etc).
On a non-Derby note, Tonight is the NHL draft lottery where the New York Islanders have a 48% chance of landing the 1st overall pick and the right to select the "next one" Canadian sniper John Tavares. Coverage of the lottery is on Versus begining at 8 pm/ et.
Derby Rankings next article
Coa Committs 2 down
1. Did I Want Revenge come to New York to face lesser horses? I don't believe that he did because before the Gotham, Imperial Council and Mr. Fantasy were being highlighted as possible Derby contenders only to have I Want Revenge romp by 8 1/2 lengths. Despite the fact that he did face "lesser" horses in the Wood, Revenge still went up against West Side Bernie and Gotham runner-up Imperial Council and won despite breaking in the air and being left at the pack. He is a legit contender who can be placed anywhere in the race. Only two questions remain for him. One, Will he have anything left for Louisville after 2 cross-country flights for races where he ran his heart out? Two, Can he beat Pioneerofthe Nile on dirt after failing to beat him on synthectics in California?
2. How Legit is Dunkirk? Very Legit. After romping in his maiden race, Todd Pletcher got Garrett Gomez to fly in from California mid week to ride him in an allowance race where he was wide the entire time and still dominated. As much as I would love to throw out the Florida Derby because of the track I can't because Quality Road might be the controlling speed in the Kentucky Derby just as he would like it. I think that the paceless Kentucky Derby won't go over well for Dunkirk, but I still expect a top-5 finish from him.
3. Which Prep Race turned out to be the strongest in form? I think that the change of distance for the Fountain of Youth really hurt the Gulfstream Preps even more than the hard-as-nails packed track they had for the Florida Derby. Of all the horses to race in the Holy Bull, FOY and Florida Derby, only Quality Road and Dunkirk are serious contenders. Pioneerofthe Nile looks to have the best form having beaten I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, The Pamplemousse among others. However, I Want Revenge didn't get serious until he was put on dirt, Chocolate Candy looks like he needs a pace to close from and The Pamplemousse is injured and won't run. The synthetic track has played a role in POTN's success and I can see him spinning his wheels in Louisville. Outside of California, I will put no stock into the winners of any of the syntehtic prep races (Lexington, Lane's End and Blue Grass) but it is hard to overlook General Quarters who ran 2nd to Musket Man in Tampa Bay's Pasco Stakes, beat Musket Man in the Sam F. Davis and fell behind in traffic in the Tampa Bay Derby. With Win Willy proving to be a fluke and Old Fashioned injured, I do not like the winners of any Arkansas prep races to be major factors. Papa Clem, winner of the Arkansas Derby ran 2nd to Larry Jones' Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby over a sloppy track. Friesan looks to be a serious contender, and you always have to respect a Larry Jones horse. Finally, I must say the strongest prep-race had to be the Tampa Bay Derby. I am not being biased towards Musket Man, but he defeated now-multiple graded stakes winner General Quarters, Todd Plectcher's Join In The Dance who ran 5th in the Blue Grass and next out allowance winner Hello Broadway from the Barclay Tagg Barn. Musket Man's ability to manuever through traffic and go to another gear of speed is necessary to win the Kentucky Derby (see Big Brown, Street Sense etc).
On a non-Derby note, Tonight is the NHL draft lottery where the New York Islanders have a 48% chance of landing the 1st overall pick and the right to select the "next one" Canadian sniper John Tavares. Coverage of the lottery is on Versus begining at 8 pm/ et.
Derby Rankings next article
Coa Committs 2 down
Musket Man #1
New York Times Horse Racing columnist Joe Drape has announced his top 10 horses for the Kentucky Derby. Topping Mr. Drape's list is Musket Man, which he describes as "Illinois Derby Winner was flatterd by General Counsel's (Quarters) Blue Grass Victory."
Thank You Mr. Drape for noticing the ability that Musket Man has. You can check out the article on the New York Times website by clicking this link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/sports/othersports/14derby.html?_r=1
Thank You Mr. Drape for noticing the ability that Musket Man has. You can check out the article on the New York Times website by clicking this link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/sports/othersports/14derby.html?_r=1
Coa Committs
Jockey Eibar Coa, who guided Musket Man in his victory in the Illinois Derby (GII) has committed to ride Musket Man in the Kentucky Derby. Coa earned another possible Derby mount this past Saturday as he was aboard the Blue Grass stakes winner General Quarters. We are excited to have Eibar ride for us.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
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