Do all great athletes come from athletic parents? Are all Kentucky Derby winners determined based on whether or not the horse's sire and dam could get the mile and quarter distance? Absolutely not. When looking at a maiden race for first time starters and other maidens it is important to take pedigree into account to decide who you think is going to win, however when a horse has raced 6 times already you can't doubt the horse based on his pedigree. Musket Man, out of the champion sprinter Yonaguska was never supposed to get a mile and a sixteenth or eighth, but he has 2 graded stakes wins at each of the distances and is still being doubted by some based upon his pedigree and lack of stayers. Steve Haskin, one of the main writers for the bloodhorse.com has listed Musket Man as his 10 selection, behind horses such as General Quarters, who Musket Man has defeated twice, in the Pasco Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby, both at Tampa Bay Downs. Mr. Haskin's reasoning for placing Musket so low on his list despite 5 wins from 6 starts has nothing to do with past performances, but all to do with pedigree.
"The only reason he's behind General Quarters, despite having beaten him two out of three times at Tampa, is the difference in pedigree. While it looks like he'll continue to outrun his pedigree, his rival is almost a sure thing to stay. But it's hard to like one without the other. This is a potent Tampa one-two punch."
Exactly Steve, he will continue to out run his pedigree so it shouldn't even be a concern heading into Derby Day. Musket Man has never been in a situation where he was on the lead and was going to get caught, in fact it looks like Musket Man doesn't do his best running until he sees the eighth pole. How can you explain, Mr. Haskin, that you had Old Fashioned on top of your list for several weeks, despite his inability to control his speed enough to get the distance in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby. Old Fashioned has the pedigree to run long, but the horse's own character and preferences wouldn't allow him to get stay on until the wire. So if a horse, like Old Fashioned, who supposedly has the pedigree to get the distance, can't get the distance why can't a horse like Musket Man be able to get the mile and a quarter? Please explain that to me Steve, well not just to me, but to everyone of your readers.
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I can never understand why people take everything so personally and seriously. I wrote positively about this horse in my column on the Illinois Derby and picked him as one of my top 5 Derby overlays in today's column, based on his brilliant acceleration in the Tampa Derby. I spoke at length with Derek Ryan last week about that and had planned on doing a major piece on Musket Man in my column next week or Derby week. I even dug deeper into his pedigree, finding all the stamina I could, and was going to say how dangerous the horse will be in the Derby. But you take a lot of the fun out of it by taking offense at stupid little things and writing sarcastic headlines. You ignore all the positives and comment only on some ridiculous ranking that is merely a guess, just like everyone elses. I had Old Fashioned #1 because I didnt like anyone else at that time. But things change and better horses and performances keep popping up, which resulted in my dropping him down as others came along to displace him. And just to let you know websites for Derby horses usually are a kiss of death. I hope thats not the case with him, because I do like the horse, despite what you may think. Good luck in the Derby.
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