Random Thoughts about the Derby

Because this is a "blog," this site should have more information and stories other than just news. Here are a few things to chew on about the Kentucky Derby

1. Did I Want Revenge come to New York to face lesser horses? I don't believe that he did because before the Gotham, Imperial Council and Mr. Fantasy were being highlighted as possible Derby contenders only to have I Want Revenge romp by 8 1/2 lengths. Despite the fact that he did face "lesser" horses in the Wood, Revenge still went up against West Side Bernie and Gotham runner-up Imperial Council and won despite breaking in the air and being left at the pack. He is a legit contender who can be placed anywhere in the race. Only two questions remain for him. One, Will he have anything left for Louisville after 2 cross-country flights for races where he ran his heart out? Two, Can he beat Pioneerofthe Nile on dirt after failing to beat him on synthectics in California?

2. How Legit is Dunkirk? Very Legit. After romping in his maiden race, Todd Pletcher got Garrett Gomez to fly in from California mid week to ride him in an allowance race where he was wide the entire time and still dominated. As much as I would love to throw out the Florida Derby because of the track I can't because Quality Road might be the controlling speed in the Kentucky Derby just as he would like it. I think that the paceless Kentucky Derby won't go over well for Dunkirk, but I still expect a top-5 finish from him.

3. Which Prep Race turned out to be the strongest in form? I think that the change of distance for the Fountain of Youth really hurt the Gulfstream Preps even more than the hard-as-nails packed track they had for the Florida Derby. Of all the horses to race in the Holy Bull, FOY and Florida Derby, only Quality Road and Dunkirk are serious contenders. Pioneerofthe Nile looks to have the best form having beaten I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy, The Pamplemousse among others. However, I Want Revenge didn't get serious until he was put on dirt, Chocolate Candy looks like he needs a pace to close from and The Pamplemousse is injured and won't run. The synthetic track has played a role in POTN's success and I can see him spinning his wheels in Louisville. Outside of California, I will put no stock into the winners of any of the syntehtic prep races (Lexington, Lane's End and Blue Grass) but it is hard to overlook General Quarters who ran 2nd to Musket Man in Tampa Bay's Pasco Stakes, beat Musket Man in the Sam F. Davis and fell behind in traffic in the Tampa Bay Derby. With Win Willy proving to be a fluke and Old Fashioned injured, I do not like the winners of any Arkansas prep races to be major factors. Papa Clem, winner of the Arkansas Derby ran 2nd to Larry Jones' Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby over a sloppy track. Friesan looks to be a serious contender, and you always have to respect a Larry Jones horse. Finally, I must say the strongest prep-race had to be the Tampa Bay Derby. I am not being biased towards Musket Man, but he defeated now-multiple graded stakes winner General Quarters, Todd Plectcher's Join In The Dance who ran 5th in the Blue Grass and next out allowance winner Hello Broadway from the Barclay Tagg Barn. Musket Man's ability to manuever through traffic and go to another gear of speed is necessary to win the Kentucky Derby (see Big Brown, Street Sense etc).

On a non-Derby note, Tonight is the NHL draft lottery where the New York Islanders have a 48% chance of landing the 1st overall pick and the right to select the "next one" Canadian sniper John Tavares. Coverage of the lottery is on Versus begining at 8 pm/ et.


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